The Shot Quality Argument: Why You Should Stop Using It

Right off the bat, I'm gonna say that yes, I do like stats. I'm one of those people. I'm the annoying guy who tells you that David Clarkson's bodychecking doesn't help the Leafs win. I'm the one you want to tell to shut up and have some faith in the team, and that the coach & GM are there for a reason (nepotism and exploiting an insular industry that's resistant to change, but that's a completely different article.) I reference zone starts alongside goal counts, and you don't get why I'm so hung up on neutral zone ice time.  I'm the one who slowly shakes his head when you say that it's the quality of shots that matters and not the number. Shot quality is a thing that really gets my goat sometimes, because unlike most fancy stats that are argued against as being too hard to tabulate in a fast game like hockey, shot quality actually is too hard to calculate. When you examine how goals go in the net, there's actually a shit ton of variables.

It should be established that I'm arguing about quality of shots in the same sense I would about any other metric: as a trend of results and not singular instances. A breakaway generally scores more often than an unscreened point shot. Yes you generally get better shots on a power play. Yes, you generally expect a shot from the red line to not go in. However, the word "generally" doesn't cover instances like Toskala watching a puck slide under him from 200 feet away or Lidstrom beating Cloutier from centre ice. Until Bettman decides that goals get double or triple value for style, Crosby top shelfing a breakaway and Mike Smith's pants lead to the same result.

Who's shooting has as much of an influence as how or where. To go back to breakaways, you can believe it's a quality chance until you realize that it's Tomas Plekanec who has missed on almost every breakaway. Now imagine that he actually scores, but wait! Was the goalie Kari Lehtonen or Devan Dubnyk? If a player who can't score breakaways gets one past a sub-.900 goalie, did the player have a really good shot or did the goalie blow an easy stop? Either way, the result is the same.

The potential results of a shot can be summed up as a binary: goal/no goal. Thanks to the law of averages, given enough time, any stupid possibility can happen. Sometimes, they can happen right next to each other, like in the Canada v. Finland semifinal at the World Juniors. If shot quality dictated the goals, Zach Fucale would have gotten scored on when he left the net wide open, but he gloved the puck in amazing fashion... right before he let the very next shot go over his shoulder short side. If Finland didn't keep its cycle going, the second chance never would have happened. The other factor is Canada falling back into the box instead of attacking the puckholder. This is a demonstration of how high percentage doesn't equal 100%, and low percentage doesn't mean 0%.

The counterpoint to this position could be something along the lines of why would you just focus on taking shots willy nilly which could lead to giving up a big chance, and then you get scored on after just one shot. The important thing to consider here, though, is that shots are an end, not the means. Even if I did subscribe to the idea of varying qualities of shots, the quality of those you can get off is directly reliant on the skill of the players and their ability to execute set plays. It also doesn't change the fact that if you maintain pressure in the offensive zone for long enough, one of those golden chances will come around to put in (in the case of the Habs, they get four or five and whiff on every one). Once again, law of averages.

An in-depth and important analysis/prediction of the Montreal Canadiens 2013-14 season that hits all the major points and hot issues facing the team

There will be points. They might even win some games.

The Ultimate Offseason Post

Nothing is happening. What better opportunity than now to tackle the serious issues the team/league will face in the indeterminable future. It's a hot button issue that comes up around this time every year, and we need to solve it in a few generalizing points for good, until the next offseason happens. It'll be a long way going, but these steps will get us going in the right direction for when we recycle these exact same points because nothing got done about it.

First off, we need to address the changing of this rule, or ignore the demand to change the rule because it:s not that serious and they're all being a bunch of whiners. Independent third parties have been conducting scientific studies on said issue, They appear to make a strong case, however this is sports, and there's no room for nerds in sports.

The issue with the issue is the people in charge though. The problem is that they are all dumb, and I'm not. I have all the answers to the problems, and I curse each day that I'm relegated to writing opinion pieces instead of making boatloads of money for playing fantasy hockey. The people in charge are mired in tradition, which keeps them from making any significant progress to fix the team's problems. At the same time, they're eschewing tradition in the ways that I don't like, because I want to hang on to fading memories of the Good Old Days that may or may not have existed. It's time to get rid of the rose tinted glasses for sepia.

I know I said that I know everything better than the hockey people in charge, but I can only be vague at best, because there's a lot of numbers involved. With all these contracts, shots, goals, and minutes being measured, it leaves me scared and confused. Everyone knows that math is useless; that's why I always skipped math class after middle school. You can slap any numbers on that you want, but the issue is still the issue. If you try to quantify and analyse the issue, then a conclusion  that I don't agree with might arise. And if I don't agree with it, then it's definitely wrong. The issue is best treated as if it's a dangerous mythical beast. If we question the issue's will, then it'll eat us.

Only time will tell when the issue gets resolved, but when will that be? In due time.

Cognitive Dissonance and You: How to rationalize a series with two disliked teams

The good news: Toronto lost in a fashion that would have made Manchester City fans blush. The bad news: it was to Boston. When this series started, I had it figured that no matter who loses this series, I win. I wasn't so sure after I remembered that a winner had to come out of it. I wouldn't have denied that I felt short changed if Boston blew yet another series lead, and the Leafs had taken the role of lovable misfits away from the Islanders. One way or the other, people I didn't like were happy last night.

You can stop calling me bitter now.

For a series like this, there needs to be a consequence that directly involves you. Some measures involve more risk than others, but the payoff is a heavier investment and less doubt in your mind on what side to take. Here's a few suggestions in ascending order of severity.

National Pride

A quick and easy solution is to go the way of blind nationalismpatriotism. Are you Canadian? Congratulations! You have up to seven favourite teams depending on who makes the playoffs! But don't worry Americans, you get all the rest! The best part of this solution is that it's a great way to hedge your bets, and get a favourable outcome. The downside is that it's stupid and I hate you.

Potential Conference Final Matchups

Some playoff series are just more entertaining than others. Something like Penguins/Flyers is always going to better than the Minnesota Wild vs. anyone. It becomes ten times better if it's the third round. However, due to the nature of statistics, probability, and playoff seeding, you will never get your desired finals matchup. Ever.

Tattoo Bet

Someone I know actually has one of these going. If Toronto wins the Stanley Cup before Montreal does, he has to get a Leafs tattoo. This is a bonafide way to ensure you never cheer for a team again. If you're a Flames fan, call up an Edmonton or Vancouver buddy, and get set up. Having to pay money for such a shameful mark on yourself might not be something you want to do, but there's no way they'll ever win it ahahahaha right? Right?!

Suicide Pact

Why are you doing this? Seek a psychiatrist!

Habs need to GET MAD and PUNCH FACES to win games! Also, I am a huge idiot.

So I missed the third period of Game 3, what happened? Oh...OH! That many penalties? PK fought...what do you mean ground and pound?! Bork did what? No disciplinary hearing?! Hooooo boy. Wait, what did you just say? They needed to do that to win the series? By blowing a game?! How stupid are you?

Okay, so I saw people demanding that the Canadiens get mad and start coming at the Sens with their shoulders and fists after what happened between Gryba and Eller. The most interesting reason I ran into was, "that's what we did in Bantam!"I always shy away from the "I PLAYED hockey" line of reasoning, because just because you played a sport, doesn't mean you have valuable insight on it (I'm looking at you PJ Stock and Glenn Healy.) There's also the fact that in anything below AA Midget, kids basically wailed on each other to get noticed, because any scout definitely wasn't evaluating your "skill."

So let's go back to the good hockey mans that are expected to score points for money. Your really good centre gets carried off on a stretcher because of a nasty hit. What do you do? Aforementioned solution you say? Before you continue this line of thinking, complete the following questionnaire:

Is your hockey team the MONTREAL CANADIENS?

A. Yes
B. No, I follow the Boston Bruins/Toronto Maple Leafs/Philadelphia Flyers/LA Kings

If you answered B, great job! Go hog wild! Otherwise, hold on a sec. Forget the bullshit about Montreal being better than that, and playing with class, whatever. Montreal shouldn't send a message by fighting, because they are BAD at fighting. Call Prust an enforcer all you want, but the only thing he can enforce is that his face is really good at getting punched. White's best asset is psychosis, and Armstrong got signed because Travis Moen needed a playmate.

Now, think about all the times this season when the Habs got punchy. What do they have in common? If you said they gave up at least five goals and lost in an embarrassing manner, then you're absolutely right! Sure, you could look at the winning streak right after the Feb. 9 loss, but more recently, it caused a downturn that almost ended up with a series to make CBC executives piss themselves (in an alternate universe, I am celebrating an impending sweep of the Leafs.)

If they go into game 4 looking for a fight, the series is over.

Stats aren't old tyme hockey: who will come out against hockeymetrics?

Even though playoffs are on the horizon, and I'm pushing for the Jets and Blue Jackets to make it in, sometimes I like to read baseball articles. Articles like this piece on Max Scherzer are a blast to read, because of how the author uses the parallels of depression and sabrmetrics to make a point on how to pay attention to details. Sadly, the mirror image to this is some piece on the Grand Forks Herald that blocks bugmenot. However, there are some choice quotes people have pulled.

With ruthless determination, computer nerds have proven that statistical probability governs the game of baseball more than anybody ever imagined. "The law of averages," my Grandpa used to call it.

But Grandpa meant that if Hrbek was 0 for his last 10, the law of averages said he would more than likely get a hit his next time up. The computer nerds go much deeper.

Nobody says the phrase "computer nerd" unironically unless they're at least 45. But it doesn't stop there!

Let's make a trade. I propose sending all of baseball's statisticians to the federal government in exchange for a hot dog.

I don't even want the context for this. I will pay a calligrapher hard cash to scribe and frame this for me.

Baseball has immersed itself in advanced stats so much that games on tv will even post a player's on base percentage beside their batting average. Hockey has its feet wet in the pool too, as figures like Corsi, Fenwick, PDO, and other useful things with stupid names are becoming less obscure. History is set to repeat itself though. Elliott Friedman is bringing up fancystats while Glenn Healy's dented head has trouble accepting the concept, never mind that Healy has a hard enough time trying to pull back his hand if the stove burner's hot.

TV is one thing; words are another, and eventually, print journalists are going to eventually sound off on the issue, whether or not they can, or are willing to understand it. The way I see it, it's not going to be pretty. The more advanced stats are talked about, the more likely those writers are going to cover them. I mean the likes of Damien Cox, Bruce Garrioch, etc. Expect them to brush aside stats for heart, grit, and wins, unless it helps them make some silly point or other. However, who among them is most likely to release a diatribe about those fucking nerds who can't even skate backwards thinking they know hockey through their nerdy algebra for nerds? That's what I intend to divine. Bear in mind, while I will have source quotes, my primary resource is the same as any self respecting sports journalist: my ass.

Michel Therrien's new game strategy to include atonement, shame

Michel Therrien looks down on celebrations like these, as
it makes the other players feel bad for not scoring the goal.

If you watch a Michel Therrien interview, you'll notice he always looks pissed. He has no time for things like smiling, inflection in his voice, or generally enjoying life. It shows in his coaching strategy, as he puts forward a team first mindset, but questions are being raised when he announced that he's putting the kibosh on the famous triple low fives between PK Subban and Carey Price. Aside from the Pacioretty-Desharnais-Cole line, the triple low five after winning a game is the only constantly good thing I remember from last season. Here's two of the team's best players showing camaraderie in a relaxed, fun fashion. Fans ate it up, and it even got TV exposure from time to time. But now, Coach Buzzkill has to come along and say no, it's disrespectful. I'm sorry, what?

Apparently, this isn't the only reform that Therrien wants to introduce. He has quite the laundry list of changes he plans on implementing to sap the humanity and everything we enjoy about the team help improve team discipline and give it a more classy image. These are some of his plans:

• Take all "Get to Know Your Canadiens" videos off the team website, as the players show too much personality.
• Carey Price must wear only plain white masks, because wearing various designs is prideful, and pride is a sin.
• Self flagellation is to be introduced as a weekly team building exercise.
• The Bell Centre will no longer announce the three stars of the game, as individual contributions are disgraceful to the fans.
• The locker room motto, "to you from failing hands we throw the torch be yours to hold it high" will now become, "THE TALLEST BLADE OF GRASS IS THE FIRST TO BE CUT BY THE LAWNMOWER."

Frankly, stuff like this is avoiding the real issues with the team. Stopping triple low fives won't do anything if the penalty kill gets scored on from three different Brandon Prust penalties; meanwhile, Ryan White is in a corner of the ice eating the contents of Ben Lovejoy's stomach. Hockey punch players aren't exactly known for their low PIMs. Get mad at those guys before you tell people like PK that he can't have fun on the ice. It doesn't help that you took all the incentive out of his paycheque.